Center for Computing Research (CCR)

Center for Computing Research

Asmeret Bier Naugle

Asmeret Bier Naugle
Machine Intelligence
Email: abier@sandia.gov
Phone: 505/845-3247
Fax: 505/844-4728

Mailing address:
Sandia National Laboratories
P.O. Box 5800, MS 1327
Albuquerque, NM
87185-1320

Asmeret Bier Naugle is a computational social scientist with expertise and interest in a variety of modeling and analysis methods. She received her PhD from Washington State University in Environmental and Natural Resource Sciences, and a certificate in National Security Affairs from Texas A&M University. She is in the Machine Intelligence department at Sandia National Laboratories, where she focuses on national security applications. She has worked on topics such as political dynamics, migration, cyber security, and energy systems.

Education/Background

  • PhD in Environmental and Natural Resource Sciences, Washington State University
  • Certificate in National Security Affairs, Texas A&M University
  • MS in Environmental Science, Washington State University
  • BA in Mathematics, University of California Santa Cruz
  • BA in Environmental Studies, University of California Santa Cruz

Selected Publications & Presentations

2019
  • Naugle, Asmeret Bier, Kiran Lakkaraju, Vamshi Balanaga, Christina E. Warrender, Stephen Joseph Verzi, Michael Livesay, Laura Painton Swiler, "A Complexity-Focused Framework for Comparing and Evaluating Social Simulations," Presentation, MITRE Step Workshop on Complexity in McLean, VA, August 2019.
  • Naugle, Asmeret Bier, George A. Backus, Vincent C. Tidwell, Elizabeth James Kistin Keller, Daniel Villa, "A regional model of climate change and human migration," Journal Article, International Journal of System Dynamics Applications, Vol. 8, No. 1, Accepted/Published January 2019.
  • Naugle, Asmeret Bier, Thushara Gunda, Casey Lane Doyle, "Barriers to Adoption of Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) ," Presentation, International System Dynamics Conference in Albuquerque, NM, US from 07/21/2019 - 07/25/2019, July 2019.
  • Naugle, Asmeret Bier, "Social Simulation for Understanding the Context and Implications of Cyber Attacks ," Presentation, STEP workshop on complexity science in McLean, VA, USA, August 2019.
2018
  • Bull, Diana L, George A. Backus, Jasper O. E. Hardesty, Asmeret Bier Naugle, Lawson Brigham, William E. Hart, "Methodologies to Optimize Changing National Security Preparedness Demands Arising with Increasing Arctic Access," Conference Paper, 2018 DoD Arctic Science & Technology Synchronization Workshop, May 2018.
  • Naugle, Asmeret Bier, Kiran Lakkaraju, Stephen Joseph Verzi, Laura Painton Swiler, Vicente J. Romero, Michael Lewis Bernard, "A multi-tiered complexity metric," Conference Paper, International Conference on Complex Systems, July 2018.
2017
  • Bernard, Michael Lewis, Asmeret Bier Naugle, "Examining how perception of external threat influences the popularity of government leaders," Conference Paper, International Conference on Applied Human Factors and Ergonomics, July 2017.
  • Naugle, Asmeret Bier, Michael Lewis Bernard, "Behavioral Interactions Between Extremist Groups," Presentation, System Dynamics Winter Camp, January 2017.
  • Naugle, Asmeret Bier, "Computational simulation of behaviors of individuals, groups, & societies," Presentation, Chesapeake Large-Scale Analytics Conference, October 2017.
  • Naugle, Asmeret Bier, Austin Ray Silva, Munaf Syed Aamir, "Cooperation and Free Riding in Cyber Security Information-Sharing Programs," Journal Article, International Journal of System Dynamics Applications, Vol. 6, No. 2, pp. 71–85, Accepted/Published April 2017.
  • Vugrin, Eric D., Timothy Trucano, Laura Painton Swiler, Patrick D. Finley, Tatiana Paz Flanagan, Asmeret Bier Naugle, Jeffrey Y. Tsao, Stephen Joseph Verzi, "Recommended research directions for improving the validation of complex systems models," SAND Report, February 2017.
2016
  • Naugle, Asmeret Bier, Michael Lewis Bernard, Itamara Lochard, "Simulating Political and Attack Dynamics of the 2007 Estonian Cyber Attacks," Conference Paper, Winter Simulation Conference, December 2016.
  • Naugle, Asmeret Bier, Michael Lewis Bernard, "Using Computational Modeling to Examine Shifts Towards Extremist Behaviors in European Diaspora Communities," Conference Paper, International Conference on Applied Human Factors and Ergonomics, July 2016.
2015
  • Naugle, Asmeret Bier, George A. Backus, Vincent C. Tidwell, Elizabeth James Kistin Keller, Daniel Villa, "A regional model of human migration and climate change effects," Conference Paper, IMISCOE (International Migration, Integration, and Social Cohesion) Annual Conference, June 2015.
  • Naugle, Asmeret Bier, Nadine E. Miner, Munaf Syed Aamir, Robert Fredric Jeffers, Stephen Joseph Verzi, Michael Lewis Bernard, "Simulating smoking behaviors based on cognition-determined, opinion-based system dynamics," Conference Paper, Winter Simulation Conference, December 2015.
2014
  • Bernard, Michael Lewis, Asmeret Bier Naugle, "Analytical capability to better understand and anticipate extremist shifts within populations in failing states," Conference Paper, 5th International Conference on Applied Human Factors and Ergonomics, July 2014.
  • Bernard, Michael Lewis, George A. Backus, Asmeret Bier Naugle, William Busch, Regan Damron, "Behavioral Influence Assessment (BIA): A multi-scale system to assess dynamic behaviors within groups and societies across time," Conference Paper, 5th International Conference on Applied Human Factors and Ergonomics, July 2014.
  • Naugle, Asmeret Bier, Michael Lewis Bernard, "A General Theory of Societal Governance and Power Dynamics of Extremist Groups," Conference Paper, International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 2014.
  • Naugle, Asmeret Bier, Michael Lewis Bernard, "Validating a hybrid cognitive-system dynamics model of team interaction," Conference Paper, 5th International Conference on Applied Human Factors and Ergonomics, July 2014.
2013
  • Naugle, Asmeret Bier, "Behavioral influence assessment for organizational cooperation in cyber security," Conference Paper, Winter Simulation Conference, December 2013.
  • Naugle, Asmeret Bier, Benjamin Robert Anderson, "Cooperation and learning in cyber security training exercises," Conference Paper, International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 2013.
2012
  • Naugle, Asmeret Bier, "Organizational participation in cooperative cyber security," Conference Paper, International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 2012.
2011
  • Bier, Asmeret, Tom Lowry, Amy Sun, Daniel Villa, "Seasonal-scale optimization of conventional hydropower operations," Conference Paper, HydroVision International, July 2011.
  • Bier, Asmeret, "Sensitivity analysis techniques for system dynamics models of human behavior," Conference Paper, International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 2011.
  • Bier, Asmeret, Michael Bernard, George Backus, Matthew Glickman, Steven Verzi, "Using a hybrid cognitive-system dynamics model to anticipate the influence of events and actions on human behavior," Conference Paper, International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 2011.
  • Bier, Asmeret, Tom Lowry, Amy Sun, Janet Barco, Daniel Villa, "Seasonal-Scale Optimization of Conventional Hydropower Operations: Blue Mesa Reservoir," Conference Paper, AWRA Annual Water Resources Conference, November 2011.
2010